The $467 Million Infield Is Hitting .128 — And Mets Fans Already Booed

Francisco Lindor is hitting .143. Bo Bichette is hitting .111 with a 53% strikeout rate. Together, the Mets' two most expensive position players are 5-for-39. Both start cold simultaneously? That's a 1-in-77 event. But Bichette's strikeout rate is a 1-in-1,430 event — and that one might not be noise.

By The Sports Page · April 5, 2026 · All stats through 8 games

.128

Combined BA: Lindor + Bichette

53.3%

Bichette K Rate (League Avg: 22%)

10%

Of Evidence Needed to Judge (15 of 150 PA)

Francisco Lindor went hitless in his first 8 at-bats. Through 21 at-bats, the franchise shortstop is 3-for-21 with zero home runs and zero RBI — a .143 batting average from a player making $34.1 million per year. Part of the explanation is mechanical: Lindor underwent hamate bone surgery in February, and early-season rust after hand surgery is well-documented. Part of it is the Mets' broader offensive malaise — a team batting .230 with a .378 slugging percentage. But Lindor's struggles are at least explainable.

Bo Bichette's are harder to explain. The Mets signed the former Blue Jays All-Star to a three-year, $126 million contract in January. He moved from shortstop to third base — a position he'd never played. And through 18 at-bats, he's hitting .111 with a 53.3% strikeout rate. That's 8 strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. For a player whose career strikeout rate is 15.3%, this isn't a cold stretch. It's a statistical outlier so extreme that it happens by chance only once in every 1,430 trials. And Mets fans, with the emotional scar tissue of 2025 fresh, have already started booing. At home. In April.

"15 plate appearances is 10% of the 150 PA needed for a batting average to stabilize. Mets fans booed at 10% of the evidence. That's not judgment. That's anxiety wearing a jersey."

The $467M Infield: Lindor and Bichette Through 8 Games

Player	Contract	AB	Hits	BA	RBI	K Rate	Career BA
Lindor	$341M/10yr	21	3	.143	0	—	.268
Bichette	$126M/3yr	18	2	.111	3	53.3%	.277
Combined	$467M	39	5	.128	3	—	.272

How Unlikely Is This?

Lindor: 3-for-21 (.143) with career BA of .268 P(≤3 hits in 21 AB at .268): 14.6% → Bad luck but plausible. Happens ~1 in 7. Bichette: 2-for-18 (.111) with career BA of .277 P(≤2 hits in 18 AB at .277): 8.8% → Unlucky but not shocking. Happens ~1 in 11. BOTH this bad simultaneously: P(both): 14.6% × 8.8% = 1.29% → About 1 in 77 chance. Genuinely rare. The REAL red flag — Bichette's strikeouts: Career K rate: 15.3% Current K rate: 8/15 = 53.3% P(≥8 Ks in 15 PA at 15.3%): 0.070% → 1-in-1,430 chance → This is NOT just noise. → New position? New league pressure? Mechanical? → Something is different. The question is whether it's fixable or structural.

When Will They Hit? A Bayesian Timeline

Using career stats as a strong prior, updated with current performance: Lindor projected BA through ~70 AB (next 2 weeks): Median: .225 (recovering toward career norm) Games to reach .250 (at career pace): ~32 Bichette projected BA through ~70 AB: Median: .221 (recovering, but K rate is a drag) Games to reach .250 (at career pace): ~24 The stabilization threshold for batting average: ~150 plate appearances = reliable signal Lindor has: 21 AB = 14% of threshold Bichette has: 18 AB = 12% of threshold They're being judged on 12-14% of the evidence needed to form a real opinion. But Bichette's K rate needs only ~70 PA to stabilize. At 15 PA, if the K rate is STILL 3.5× career norm, it's worth watching. Not panicking. Watching.

Lindor will be fine. The hamate surgery explains the slow start, and his career .268 average is a strong prior. Bichette? The batting average will recover. The strikeout rate is the real question — and 15 PA is just barely enough to raise an eyebrow, not ring an alarm.

They've Seen This Movie Before

Derek Jeter, April 1996 — Rookie Hit .167 Through 12 AB

.314

Where Jeter finished his rookie year

Derek Jeter went 2-for-12 (.167) in his first week as the Yankees' starting shortstop. Yankee fans weren't booing — but they weren't confident either. Jeter finished the year hitting .314, won Rookie of the Year, and played 20 seasons in pinstripes. His first 12 at-bats told you nothing about the next 11,183. Bichette's first 18 at-bats are telling you even less.

15 PA is not a sample. It's a rumor.

The 2025 Mets — When the Good Start Was the Lie

45-24

The record that meant nothing

Last year, the Mets started 45-24 and fans were euphoric. They had a 96.2% playoff probability. Then they went 38-55 and missed the postseason. The hot start was MORE misleading than Bichette's cold start. A .111 average through 18 at-bats is noise. A 45-24 record through 69 games was also noise — just noise that felt good. The lesson: early returns lie in both directions.

Hot or cold, small samples lie equally