The Portal Freeze: A 35–40% Reduction in Transfers Will Reshape Who Wins College Football
Transfer Portal Growth, 2022–2025
| Year | FBS Transfers | Growth | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,946 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 2,303 | +18% | Accelerating |
| 2024 | 2,707 | +18% | Accelerating |
| 2025 | ~3,100 | +15% | Still climbing (peak) |
| 2026 (proj.) | ~1,900 | −35–40% | EO impact |
The executive order does three things to the transfer portal: it limits athletes to one free transfer as an undergraduate, requires a sit-out season for any subsequent transfer, and caps total eligibility at five years. The combined effect is dramatic. An estimated 28% of current portal entries are repeat transfers — players moving for a second or third time. Those entries disappear immediately. Add the deterrence effect on first-time transfers who now know they can’t try again, and the projected reduction is 35–40%. The portal that moved 3,100 FBS players last year could move fewer than 2,000 next year.
This isn’t a minor adjustment. It’s a structural change in how rosters are built. Since the portal opened in 2018, a class of programs emerged that construct entire rosters through transfers rather than high school recruiting. Colorado under Deion Sanders brought in 28 portal players in one cycle. Indiana under Curt Cignetti used 18 incoming transfers to go from 3–9 to 11–2. These programs thrived in a world of unlimited player movement. That world ends August 1.
“The transfer portal was college football’s free agency. The executive order just imposed a salary cap — except instead of money, it caps movement. And like any cap, it protects the incumbents.”
— The Sports Page, on the executive order and the transfer portalWinners and Losers: Transfer Dependency by Program
Notre Dame loses more players to the portal than it gains. Under the old rules, that’s a problem. Under the new rules, it means fewer players leave AND fewer are available for competitors to poach. The math flips in ND’s favor.
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Historical Parallels
Before the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers dominated through spending. The cap, introduced in 1994, compressed talent distribution and created parity. Since then, 20 different teams have won the Super Bowl. The transfer portal limit is college football’s version of the salary cap — except it caps player movement instead of money. The expected effect is the same: less concentration of talent at the top, slower roster turnover, and more value on development over acquisition.
Before the portal, before NIL, before the playoff — college football was a 10-team sport. Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Nebraska, Florida State, Miami, and Texas won 85% of national championships between 1970 and 2010. The portal and NIL briefly disrupted that hierarchy. Colorado went from irrelevant to ranked. Indiana made the playoff. TCU played for a title. The EO transfer limits may restore the old order — or at least slow the disruption.
