Half the Games Go to Extra Innings. The Other Half, the Bats Go Silent.
Game-by-Game Results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Extras? | Key Moment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | vs PIT | W 11-7 | — | Chased Skenes in 1st inning |
| Mar 28 | vs PIT | W 4-2 | 11 inn | Robert Jr. walk-off HR |
| Mar 29 | vs PIT | L 3-4 | 10 inn | O'Hearn go-ahead single |
| Mar 30 | @ STL | W 4-2 | — | Williams 1st save, 12 pitches |
| Mar 31 | @ STL | L 0-3 | — | Shut out, 3-hit game |
| Apr 1 | @ STL | L 1-2 | 11 inn | Winn walk-off, 0-for-11 RISP |
The Mets split the Pirates series 2-1 at home, then lost the Cardinals series 1-2 on the road. Three of six games went to extra innings — a pace that's 6x the historical MLB rate of 8.5%. The offense scored 22 runs total (~3.7/game), but 11 came in the Opening Day blowout against Skenes. Remove that outlier and they averaged 2.2 runs per game in their other 5 games. The bats are generating singles but not stringing them together — 1-for-29 with runners in scoring position across the Cardinals series, including 0-for-11 in the finale.
The bullpen, meanwhile, has been the surprise bright spot. Devin Williams — the $51M replacement for Edwin Diaz — looked elite in his first save: 12 pitches, 10 strikes, perfect 9th inning against St. Louis. The pen allowed just 4 earned runs through the first 4 games. But here's the trap: extra-innings games expose the bullpen to extended duty. Three extras games in 6 forces the manager to burn arms that should be fresh in April. This pace is unsustainable in both directions — the bats will wake up, and the extras will stop. The question is which happens first.
"The 2025 Mets started 45-24 and missed the playoffs. The 2026 Mets started 3-3 and that tells you exactly as much about October: nothing."
— The Sports Page, on the information content of six gamesThe Math: What .500 After 6 Games Actually Means
We ran a Beta-Binomial model projecting the Mets' season from their 3-3 start, using a preseason prior of ~90 wins. The answer: six games is statistical noise.
Translation: .500 after 6 games is the most boring, least informative result possible. Your prior barely moves. Relax.
The Extra-Innings Anomaly
They've Seen This Movie Before
The 2025 Mets started with the best record in baseball. They had a 96.2% probability of making the playoffs. Then they went 38-55 the rest of the way, endured three 7+ game losing streaks, and missed the postseason entirely. The hot start was a lie. A .500 start through 6 games is actually more honest — it says "we don't know yet," which is the truth.
The Mets blew a 7-game lead with 17 games remaining, failing to make the playoffs. In 2008, they crashed out on the season's final day. Mets fans have generational PTSD. But here's the antidote: those collapses started from positions of strength. The 2026 Mets aren't collapsing from anything — they're at .500 after a week. There's nothing to collapse from. That's actually the good news.
"Six games is 3.7% of a season. Your annual physical tells your doctor more about your health than six games tells you about October."
— The Sports Page, on sample size and patience
